Well, we are off. The federal election campaign is officially underway tonight. I will go out on a limb and make a modest (albeit not very original) prediction. A Liberal minority, with Bloc gains in Quebec, NDP gains in British Columbia, and, this is the gamble, Liberal (not Conservative) gains (or at least the status quo) in Ontario. Of course, that said, I regret to predict that Michael “Invade Iraq” Ignatieff will win his seat in Toronto and Olivia Chow will beat Tony Ianno in Trinity-Spadina. The Tories, I think, will do little better than the 98 seats they already have and Harper will be replaced as leader.
I must admit, it is a modest prediction. Check out electionprediction.org and politicswatch.com for all the election rumors, scandals, and all the juicy election updates. What are your predictions?
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I think you are right, that is the question. The deciding answer to that question will be in three geographic regions: British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.
If polls are accurate, the NDP is poised to do well in BC and could take Conservative seats there. The Liberals are weak in Quebec and the Bloc could take them out, defeating key cabinet ministers. The battle ground in Ontario is the big "if."
Will Ontario voters turn on the Liberals? Will they embrace the Tories? Too early to tell, but at 20 percent in Ontario, the NDP could be a spoiler in a few ridings...
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